A club that may *never* add another member

The 300 win club!

Fifteen years ago today, left-handed flame thrower Randy Johnson won his 300th game.

Yes, Johnson was at that point — age 45! — pitching for the San Francisco Giants. In that final year of his career he won 8 games, ending his career with 303 wins. (Fun fact: Johnson only won 20 games three times in his career: 1997, 1998 and 2002.)

Johnson was only the 24th pitcher in Major League history to notch 300 wins. And more remarkably, he is the LAST pitcher to do so. And, in truth, he may be the last pitcher EVER to do so.

---

This is a free post. But “The Replay” is going to only be for paid subscribers very soon. So, become one! It’s just $5 a month or $50 for the year!

---

Wins for a starting pitcher are a declining commodity in big league baseball. As the “Moneyball” era has emerged, it’s become clear that the “win” tends to be something well short of an objective measure of a pitcher’s ability or value to his team.

As John O’Shea wrote in Bleacher Report way back in 2011:

The reality is that "wins" as an individual statistic are often a misleading measure of a starting pitcher's performance and value.  Pitchers who play for teams with good offenses (that can give them a lead) and good bullpens (that can hold on to leads) have a significant advantage in accumulating wins over pitchers on mediocre teams.  

The game has changed in other ways too. The average length of a start for a pitcher has declined precipitously over the last few decades.

Check out this chart — documenting complete games by pitchers between 2001 and 2021:

Pitchers are simply not going as deep in games as they did even 30 years ago. This chart — via High Heat Stats — makes that case in stark terms:

The average length of a start so far in 2024, according to Ben Clemens writing in Fangraphs, is 5.24 innings, which is actually up somewhat from recent years!

The point here is that teams no longer pitch pitchers for as long as they once did. Which makes racking up 300 wins — when you are likely starting 30-32 games in a completely healthy year — very, very tough.

At the moment, there’s only one active pitcher who appears to have any chance of joining Johnson in the 300 win club: Justin Verlander of the Houston Astros.

Verlander, who entered the league in 2005 at the age of 22, is currently at 260 wins (against 143 losses).

Just 40 more wins seems totally doable, right? Except:

• Verlander is 41 years old

• His last few years have been injury plagued

• He is only 3-2 this year and has only made 9 starts

Verlander is very aware of the 300-win plateau. Here’s what he said about it last July:

“It’s definitely still possible. Look, it’s not the reason I’m still pitching, but I’d love to do it. I love the game. But, it’s simple math. I need 15 more a year, for what, three more years? If I play five or six more years, I should get there. I’m just trying to extend my window as long as possible and still be good. If I play until I’m 45 or 46, it’s still very plausible.”

He’s right. If he can pitch to 45 or 46 years old, he will likely become the 25th member of the 300 win club. But that’s a big “if”!

Aside from Verlander, it’s very, very hard to see any active pitcher coming anywhere close to 300 wins. As of the end of the 2023 season, here were the pitchers the closest to that mark:

Zack Greinke 225 wins

Max Scherzer 214 wins

Clayton Kershaw 210 wins

Greinke is 40 years old and hasn’t pitched yet in 2024. Scherzer is 39 and hasn’t pitched yet this year. (He is expected back soon.) Kershaw is 36 years old but hasn’t pitched yet in 2024. (He is still recovering from surgery on his throwing shoulder.)

So, yeah. I suppose if Kershaw pitches for another decade he could get to 300 but his career has been injury-plagued, which seems unlikely to change as he ages.

The reality is that Johnson or, maybe, Verlander should shut the door and lock it behind them in the 300-win club. We won’t see any more entrants for the foreseeable future. And maybe ever.