It’s draft day!
The NFL has successfully turned its draft into a multi-day extravaganza — it starts tonight and doesn’t end until Saturday! — that gets bonkers ratings and fuels untold hours of sports radio chatter.
It all starts tonight at 8 pm eastern time.
And we all know who the #1 pick will be: Caleb Williams, the University of Southern California product (by way of Washington, DC) has been the highest rated quarterback (and player) for the entirety of this looooooong draft process.
Williams is, like so many overall #1 picks, described as a can’t-miss talent. A rocket arm coupled with the athletic ability to escape when the pocket breaks down. Someone who can hit throws at all three levels. A generational player.
If you’ve been around long enough — and by that I mean more than the last few years — you’ve heard this all before. While you would think the #1 pick in the draft would always hit — and turn out to be a star — history suggests that is simply not the case.
A look back at the last ten #1 overall picks, in fact, suggests that finding a true super star is a hell of a lot harder than it looks.
Here’s the last 10 picks:
2013: Eric Fisher, tackle (Made two Pro Bowls in 2018 and 2020)
2014: Jadaveon Clowney, defensive end (Made three Pro Bowls in 2016, 2017, 2018)
2015: Jameis Winston, QB (Made one Pro Bowl in 2015)
2016: Jared Goff, QB (Made three Pro Bowls in 2018, 2018 and 2022)
2017: Myles Garrett, defensive end (Made five Pro Bowls in 2018, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023)
2018: Baker Mayfield, QB (Made one Pro Bowl in 2023)
2019: Kyler Murray, QB (Made two Pro Bowls in 2021 and 2022)
2020: Joe Burrow, QB (Made one Pro Bowl in 2022)
2021: Trevor Lawrence, QB (Made one Pro Bowl in 2022)
2022: Travon Walker, defensive end
2023: Bryce Young, QB
Out of that group, the only legitimate SUPER stars are Garrett and Burrow. Lawrence has been good but hasn’t lived up totally to his pre-draft hype. Ditto Murray. Goff has has had an above-average career but is not on that star level. Same for Mayfield. Young had a very rocky first season.
The point is that #1 overall picks can — and do — miss. So, while I wish the best for Caleb Williams, history suggests that he’s got much less than a 50-50 shot of becoming a super star in the NFL.
In fact, the history of the #1 overall pick is littered with players who not only didn’t work out as their high draft status would suggest but wound up being, for lack of a better word, busts.
To be clear: I don’t put a Mayfield or even a Clowney in that category. Sure, they haven’t been as good as we thought they might be. But they have had a lot of good moments — and even made a Pro Bowl or two.
To be a bust, in my opinion, you have to never have come anywhere close to demonstrating the talent that led to you being picked with the exalted #1 overall draft choice.
So, who fits that description? A somewhat surprisingly large number of draft picks! My list of the top 5 biggest busts taken #1 overall is below.